Recommended Weekend Reads: January 20-22, 2023

We thought you might find the following useful reading. Let us know what you think and if you or a colleague want to be added to our distribution list. Have a great weekend.

·       “The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan”  Center for Strategic and International Studies 

China’s leaders have become increasingly strident about unifying Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Senior U.S. officials and civilian experts have expressed concern about Chinese intentions and possible conflict. CSIS conducted an extensive wargame of what a Chinese invasion would look like and its possible outcomes. The surprising result: It would not go that well for China.

·       “The New Bankers to the World Aren’t on Wall Street”  Bloomberg

Middle East sovereign funds spent almost $89 billion globally last year – double the previous year – with deal makers using their wealth to diversify their economies and win geopolitical influence.  $51.6 billion of that amount went into Europe and North America.

·       “Is the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act Hurting the German Economy? An Objection to Exaggerated Claims”  Atlantik-Brücke

Following the U.S. Congress’s passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) last year, the E.U. strongly objected to the new law, claiming it is highly protectionist and will significantly harm Europe’s industrial sector. These protests were perhaps the loudest in Germany. In this study conducted by the influential German Economic Institute (I.W.) and published by the Berlin-based think tank Atlantik-Brücke, the reality is that “On closer inspection… the criticism and scandalization appear to be both self-righteous and exaggerated.”

·       “Rebuilding U.S. Inventories: Six Critical Systems” Center for Strategic and International Studies

As the United States transfers massive amounts of weapons, munitions, and supplies to Ukraine, questions arise about the health of U.S. inventories – increasingly from the new Congress. Are inventories getting too low? How long will it take to rebuild those inventories?  An earlier CSIS commentary identified those inventories that are most at risk. This new assessment continues that analysis by examining inventory replacement times. Most inventories, though not all, will take many years to replace. For most items, there are workarounds, but there may be a crisis brewing over artillery ammunition. 

Chart of the Week:

This week, we were reading a fascinating piece in The Washington Post entitled “the oldest (and youngest) states and the shrinking number of teenagers with licenses.”  For our chart of the week, we found this excellent map in the piece detailing which states are the oldest and which are the youngest. It was not what we expected – to our surprise, Maine is easily the oldest state in the Union, with an average age of 47. Why? Mainers tend to stay in Maine, and now the state is gaining a fair share of retirees. (Arizona remains the top state for retirees, but that number is starting to shrink.).