Recommended Weekend Reads
March 8 - 10, 2024
Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
United States
“Joe Biden’s Last Campaign” Evan Osnos/New Yorker Magazine
In a wide-ranging interview with President Biden, the author helps shed light in what drives the President to want to run for another term in office, what motivates him to face former President Donald Trump again in November despite poor polling, and how he views the first three years of his presidency.
“Implications of Cannabis Legalization for the US Federal Budget” American Enterprise Institute
Abstract: Federal legislation to legalize, regulate, and tax cannabis could have significant impacts on the federal budget. While the specific details of any potential cannabis legalization are unknown at present, such reforms are likely to affect both tax receipts and federal outlays through a wide range of mechanisms, including excise tax collections, changes in the size and composition of the labor force, and the major federal health care programs. We identify the main federal budgetary implications of legalizing cannabis and estimates their likely magnitude where possible.
“How Americans View Weight-Loss Drugs and Their Potential Impact on Obesity in the U.S.” Pew Research Center
About three-quarters of Americans say they have heard a lot or a little about Ozempic, Wegovy, and other similar drugs that are being used for weight loss. Among those familiar with these drugs, 53% think they are good options to lose weight for people with obesity or a weight-related health condition, while just 19% think they are not good options, and 28% say they’re not sure. By contrast, just 12% of those familiar with these drugs say they are good options for people who want to lose weight but do not have a weight-related health condition. A far larger share (62%) say these drugs are not good options for people without a weight-related health condition, while 26% aren’t sure.
Latin America
“Poll Tracker” Mexico’s 2024 Presidential Vote” Americas Society/Council of the Americas
This real-time tracker updates on the Mexican presidential race between Claudia Sheinbaum, representing an alliance of the Workers Party (PT), the Let’s Keep Making History Party (Seguimos Haciendo Historia//SHH), and the Green Party (PVEM) versus Xóchitl Gálvez of the National Action Party (Pan). The reader can check regularly for changes to the polling in advance of the June 2, 2024 election.
“Brazil’s Polarization Is Here to Stay Even As Politicians Have (Mostly) Dialed Down the Rhetoric” Americas Quarterly
Little suggests polarization has gone away since the highly contentious election cycle in October 2022. Polarization in Brazil seems to have “calcified“: A poll in December indicated that more than 90% of people who had voted for either Lula or Bolsonaro did not regret their choice, even though Bolsonaro had been convicted for abuse of power and barred from holding office until 2030 by then. And yet, while both President Lula and former President Bolsonaro possess an unrivaled capacity to mobilize their respective supporters and single-handedly produce confrontations on social media, a broader analysis reveals that the intensity of polarization in Brazil, in many ways, seems to have declined considerably over the past year.
“What Happened to Lulu? How He Dashed High Hopes for Brazil’s Foreign Policy – and How He Can Get Back on Track” Foreign Affairs
Few leaders could claim on taking office, to have induced sighs of relief from both Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden. Yet, in January 2023, that is exactly what Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva did. His narrow victory over Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing extremist and an admirer of Donald Trump, sparked optimism across borders. But during his first year in office, Lula, who is chairing the G20 in 2024, has struggled to translate his vision for a more progressive global order into action. His foreign policy thus far has been beset by diplomatic missteps that have strained relations with partners in both the West and the developing world. His statements and actions have cast doubts on his role as peacemaker, coalition builder, and champion of the marginalized. His commitment to environmental leadership has been marred by his decision to turn Brazil into the latest petrostate. And his grand design overlooks his country’s most pressing threat: the explosive expansion of criminal networks that are working hard to turn Brazil into a failed state and that are undermining the ecological integrity of the Amazon rainforest.
China
“Can Electric Cars Power China’s Growth?” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics Blog
China’s aggressive policies to develop its battery-powered electric vehicle (BEV) industry have been successful in making the country the dominant producer of these vehicles worldwide. Going forward, BEVs will likely claim a growing share of global motor vehicle sales, helped along by subsidies and mandates implemented in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. Nevertheless, China’s success in selling BEVs may not contribute much to its GDP growth, owing both to the maturity of its motor vehicle sector and the strong tendency for countries to protect this high-profile industry.
“China’s long-term struggle to become integral in semiconductor supply chains” Merics
In semiconductors, China is much less able to exploit its dominant supply chain position than the US. However, Beijing is building up the legal framework and market power to use dependencies in the semiconductor industry as a bargaining chip if necessary. What can Europe do? This article is part of our series on China’s strategies to reduce vulnerabilities.
“U.S. Military Theories of Victory for a War with the People’s Republic of China” Rand Corporation
Abstract: military conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC) would entail escalation risks that the United States has not seriously considered since the Cold War. The authors of this paper consider how the United States can prevail in a limited war with the PRC while avoiding catastrophic escalation.
The authors do so by considering theories of victory for the United States in a war with China. A theory of victory is a causal story about how to defeat an adversary: It identifies the conditions under which the enemy will admit defeat and outlines how to shape the conflict in a way that creates those conditions. The authors consider five theories of victory and identify two as the most viable: denial (persuading the enemy that it is unlikely to achieve its objectives and that further fighting will not reverse this failure) and military cost-imposition (using military force to persuade the enemy that the costs of continuing the war outweigh the benefits). The authors maintain that denial offers the best chance for delivering victory while avoiding catastrophic escalation, whereas military cost-imposition has lower prospects of success and higher chances for catastrophic escalation.
Russia
“Legal options for confiscation of Russian state assets to support the reconstruction of Ukraine” European Parliamentary Research Service
This report analyses the options under international law for the confiscation of Russian state assets to support Ukraine’s reconstruction. It focuses on Russian Central Bank assets, US$300 billion, which are frozen in various jurisdictions. The report considers four avenues for overcoming Russia’s immunity for enforcement: avoidance of immunity through purely executive or legislative action; justification for the breach of international law on the grounds that it is a countermeasure; evolution of international law to lift immunity from enforcement upon, for example, a finding of aggression by a United Nations principal organ; and an exception in international law for the enforcement of an international judgment.
Map of the Week (and Photo Essay)
How Ukraine Overcame Russia’s Grain Blockade
Russia’s sealing off of Ukraine’s vital Black Sea ports and its attacks on Ukrainian grain storage centers at one point raised worldwide alarm about possible food shortages. But by early this year, grain exports were nearly back to prewar levels. The map below shows how Ukraine modified its traditional export routes to avoid destruction by Russian forces (notably by hugging the coasts of NATO members Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey). The map below – created by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) – shows the route. And you can see the CFR’s excellent Photo Essay on Ukrainian grain growth and shipping HERE.
